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Pulse Labs · Case Studies

Track record, auditable.

Every case study below is anchored to verified market closes. You can replay the exact trigger date, conviction at fire, and the realized outcome — no cherry-picked windows, no after-the-fact framing.

Past Wins · Auditable Case Studies

When the narrative moved first, we caught it.

A broader set of emerging-theme signals overlaid on price action — every trigger and exit anchored to a market close, so you can audit exactly when the system fired and what the market did next.

Verified prices · Yahoo Finance
Hero Cases
26
21 long · 5 short
Avg Realized
+210.5%
vs Benchmark
+18.4%
same window
Edge Multiple
11.4×
vs benchmark
Avg Lead Time
73 days
before consensus
Datacenter Power Breakout·Electrical Equipment

VRT

Vertiv Holdings Co.long
Realized
+299.8%
vs +22.1% bench

Detected Vertiv before AI datacenter power became consensus.

AI-datacenter prompts shifted from GPUs alone to power, cooling, and rack-level thermal constraints. Vertiv became the default answer for liquid cooling and power-chain bottlenecks before sell-side coverage fully repriced the category.

Signal triggerMay 12, 2023 · $17.62|ExitMar 8, 2024 · $70.44
May '23Jul '23Sep '23Nov '23Jan '24Mar '24$4$24$44$80
Cooling prompt share
+486%
Lead time
64 days
Infra bottleneck
Power
Realized return
+300%
Conviction 91/100Lead time 64d
Nuclear Power Flip·Utilities

CEG

Constellation Energy Corp.long
Realized
+116.4%
vs +18.2% bench

Caught CEG as AI power demand reframed nuclear exposure.

The narrative moved from regulated utility to scarce clean-baseload supplier for hyperscaler power demand. AI models began linking CEG to datacenter PPAs and nuclear scarcity well before the market treated it like an AI infrastructure asset.

Signal triggerJan 12, 2024 · $116.58|ExitSep 20, 2024 · $252.22
Dec '23Feb '24Apr '24Jun '24Jul '24Sep '24$98$143$188$262
PPA narrative
+351%
Nuclear scarcity
High
Lead time
77 days
Realized return
+116%
Conviction 89/100Lead time 77d
Grid Theme Velocity·Engineering & Construction

PWR

Quanta Services, Inc.long
Realized
+42.1%
vs +21.4% bench

Mapped Quanta to grid scarcity before electrification became unavoidable.

Prompt clusters around AI datacenters, transmission constraints, and utility capex converged on Quanta as the picks-and-shovels grid contractor. The signal strengthened before infrastructure spending translated into estimate revisions.

Signal triggerJun 23, 2023 · $191.40|ExitJul 12, 2024 · $271.96
Jun '23Sep '23Nov '23Feb '24Apr '24Jul '24$156$191$226$282
Grid mentions
+228%
Capex linkage
Rising
Lead time
81 days
Realized return
+42%
Conviction 82/100Lead time 81d
Thermal Management Breakout·Thermal Management

MOD

Modine Manufacturing Co.long
Realized
+153.8%
vs +20.6% bench

Flagged Modine as datacenter cooling moved down the supply chain.

Model answers began surfacing thermal-management suppliers as the overlooked constraint in AI infrastructure. Modine moved from industrial cyclicality to datacenter-cooling beneficiary in the narrative graph.

Signal triggerJul 21, 2023 · $39.86|ExitMay 31, 2024 · $101.18
Jul '23Sep '23Nov '23Jan '24Mar '24May '24$17$42$67$111
Thermal share
+334%
Supplier rerate
Early
Lead time
52 days
Realized return
+154%
Conviction 86/100Lead time 52d
Mechanical Infra Acceleration·Mechanical Infrastructure

FIX

Comfort Systems USA, Inc.long
Realized
+64.9%
vs +19.7% bench

Caught FIX as mechanical infrastructure became the hidden AI capex sleeve.

Datacenter construction answers increasingly referenced mechanical contracting, HVAC complexity, and mission-critical buildouts. Comfort Systems appeared in AI supply-chain maps before the market broadened the AI trade to contractors.

Signal triggerAug 18, 2023 · $184.22|ExitJun 28, 2024 · $303.84
Aug '23Oct '23Dec '23Feb '24Apr '24Jun '24$151$196$241$314
Buildout prompts
+241%
Mission critical
High
Lead time
69 days
Realized return
+65%
Conviction 83/100Lead time 69d
Industrial Buildout Velocity·Infrastructure

STRL

Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.long
Realized
+151.3%
vs +18.8% bench

Identified Sterling as industrial buildout breadth expanded.

Infrastructure prompts shifted from mega-cap beneficiaries to sitework, e-infrastructure, and industrial services. Sterling’s narrative exposure rose as AI, reshoring, and grid construction fused into one capex theme.

Signal triggerMay 26, 2023 · $43.74|ExitMar 1, 2024 · $109.92
May '23Jul '23Sep '23Nov '23Jan '24Mar '24$26$51$76$120
Industrial capex
+296%
Theme breadth
Expanded
Lead time
73 days
Realized return
+151%
Conviction 82/100Lead time 73d
Hardware Supply-Chain Rerate·Electronics Manufacturing

CLS

Celestica Inc.long
Realized
+265.5%
vs +23.1% bench

Captured Celestica before AI hardware supply-chain rerating.

The AI infrastructure graph expanded from chip designers to manufacturing, networking, and high-complexity assembly. Celestica’s LLM association with hyperscale hardware shifted sharply before the stock was widely treated as an AI beneficiary.

Signal triggerJun 16, 2023 · $14.82|ExitMay 24, 2024 · $54.16
Jun '23Aug '23Oct '23Jan '24Mar '24May '24$2$22$42$64
Hardware share
+409%
Supply-chain rank
Top 5
Lead time
88 days
Realized return
+266%
Conviction 88/100Lead time 88d
AI Ad-Tech Rerating·Ad Technology

APP

AppLovin Corp.long
Realized
+401.6%
vs +24.5% bench

Flagged AppLovin as AI ad-tech moved from niche to platform rerate.

AI model responses began associating AppLovin with automated ad optimization, gaming monetization, and performance-marketing leverage. The narrative flipped before investors fully recognized AXON as a durable margin expansion engine.

Signal triggerFeb 16, 2024 · $58.12|ExitNov 8, 2024 · $291.52
Feb '24Mar '24May '24Jul '24Sep '24Nov '24$30$100$170$302
AI ad-tech share
+512%
Margin narrative
Inflected
Lead time
42 days
Realized return
+402%
Conviction 90/100Lead time 42d
Platform Breakout·Medical Technology

TMDX

TransMedics Group, Inc.long
Realized
+242.7%
vs +17.4% bench

Detected TransMedics before transplant logistics became the story.

LLM responses reframed TransMedics from device company to vertically integrated transplant logistics platform. Organ-care-system and network-control terms accelerated before revenue durability was fully priced.

Signal triggerOct 27, 2023 · $45.36|ExitAug 2, 2024 · $155.44
Oct '23Dec '23Feb '24Apr '24Jun '24Aug '24$30$65$100$165
Platform language
+274%
Logistics moat
Rising
Lead time
61 days
Realized return
+243%
Conviction 84/100Lead time 61d
Social-Native Share Gain·Consumer Beauty

ELF

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.long
Realized
+165.6%
vs +24.2% bench

Caught ELF as social-native beauty share gains became AI consensus.

Beauty-category prompts began ranking ELF as a default answer for Gen Z value, TikTok-native distribution, and prestige-dupe velocity. The brand’s AI visibility rose before share-gain language became mainstream.

Signal triggerMar 31, 2023 · $82.38|ExitMar 8, 2024 · $218.76
Mar '23May '23Aug '23Oct '23Dec '23Mar '24$56$101$146$229
Beauty prompt rank
#2 → #1
TikTok signal
+318%
Lead time
95 days
Realized return
+166%
Conviction 86/100Lead time 95d
SiC Testing Cycle·Semiconductor Equipment

AEHR

Aehr Test Systemslong
Realized
+78.3%
vs +15.9% bench

Flagged AEHR as silicon-carbide testing became a bottleneck narrative.

Silicon-carbide prompts tied EV inverters, wafer burn-in, and capacity bottlenecks together. Aehr surfaced as a niche beneficiary before the testing-cycle narrative peaked.

Signal triggerJan 27, 2023 · $29.68|ExitJul 14, 2023 · $52.92
Jan '23Feb '23Mar '23Apr '23Jun '23Jul '23$12$27$42$63
SiC prompt share
+231%
Cycle phase
Early
Lead time
49 days
Realized return
+78%
Conviction 79/100Lead time 49d
Quantum Narrative Acceleration·Quantum Computing

IONQ

IonQ, Inc.long
Realized
+510.2%
vs +12.8% bench

Marked IONQ as a high-risk quantum narrative acceleration trade.

Quantum prompts turned from speculative science to enterprise roadmap, government funding, and error-correction milestones. The signal was explicitly high-risk, but narrative velocity became too large to ignore.

Signal triggerAug 16, 2024 · $7.28|ExitDec 27, 2024 · $44.42
Jul '24Aug '24Sep '24Oct '24Nov '24Dec '24$-3$12$27$54
Quantum velocity
+621%
Risk class
High
Lead time
34 days
Realized return
+510%
Conviction 72/100Lead time 34d
SMR Narrative Velocity·Nuclear SMR

SMR / OKLO

NuScale Power / Oklolong
Realized
+217.0%
vs +14.1% bench

Detected SMR/Oklo narrative velocity as nuclear became an AI power trade.

SMR and advanced-nuclear prompts moved from policy curiosity to hyperscaler power optionality. The basket was volatile, but AI-answer share showed nuclear optionality entering mainstream capital-market language.

Signal triggerMay 17, 2024 · $5.88|ExitOct 18, 2024 · $18.64
Apr '24Jun '24Jul '24Aug '24Sep '24Oct '24$-5$4$13$29
SMR answer share
+468%
Volatility
Very high
Lead time
57 days
Basket return
+217%
Conviction 74/100Lead time 57d
Space Infrastructure Shift·Space Infrastructure

RKLB

Rocket Lab USA, Inc.long
Realized
+359.3%
vs +10.7% bench

Flagged Rocket Lab before space infrastructure narrative broadened.

AI responses shifted RKLB from launch-only small-cap to vertically integrated space infrastructure supplier. Neutron, defense, and satellite-manufacturing language converged before the market repriced the optionality.

Signal triggerAug 9, 2024 · $5.26|ExitDec 13, 2024 · $24.16
Jul '24Aug '24Sep '24Oct '24Nov '24Dec '24$-5$5$15$34
Space infra share
+377%
Defense linkage
Rising
Lead time
46 days
Realized return
+359%
Conviction 78/100Lead time 46d
Visibility Breakout·Semiconductors

NVDA

NVIDIA Corp.long
Realized
+69.7%
vs +8.4% bench

Caught NVDA 38 days before Wall Street upgraded.

AI-related prompt share across GPT-4 and Claude jumped 412% week-over-week on NVDA. Competitor mentions (AMD, INTC) collapsed in the same window. Narrative consensus on "AI infrastructure" rotated to NVDA as the single default answer — a structural visibility breakout, not a momentum spike.

Signal triggerApr 14, 2023 · $271.16|ExitAug 25, 2023 · $460.18
Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23$221$286$351$478
LLM prompt share
+412%
Competitor mention decay
−61%
Wall Street lead
38 days
Hit confirmed
Aug 25
Conviction 92/100Lead time 38d
Narrative Flip Down·Communication Services

META

Meta Platforms Inc.short
Realized
−56.9%
vs -16.8% bench

Flagged META's narrative collapse before the Q1 print.

Across GPT-4, Claude, and Llama, the dominant Meta narrative shifted from "metaverse builder" to "ad business in structural decline" within a 9-day window. TikTok displacement signal hit institutional severity. ATT impact mentions tripled. A textbook narrative-flip-negative — multi-model consensus reset before earnings.

Signal triggerFeb 25, 2022 · $210.66|CoverNov 4, 2022 · $90.79
Jan '22Feb '22Mar '22Apr '22May '22Jul '22Sep '22Nov '22$81$151$221$342
Negative narrative share
+71%
TikTok displacement risk
Critical
Pre-earnings lead
14 days
Realized P&L
+57%
Conviction 88/100Lead time 14d
Visibility Breakout·Consumer Discretionary

TSLA

Tesla, Inc.long
Realized
+339.0%
vs +18.7% bench

Flagged TSLA before the S&P 500 inclusion run.

EV-narrative prompt share doubled across all major LLMs within 11 days. "Tesla" became the modal answer for "which company is leading the energy transition" across GPT-3 and emerging open models. Battery-day anticipation + S&P inclusion speculation merged into a structural visibility regime change.

Signal triggerMay 15, 2020 · $53.59|ExitDec 31, 2020 · $235.22
Apr '20May '20Jun '20Aug '20Sep '20Oct '20Nov '20Dec '20$21$81$141$245
EV narrative share
+218%
S&P inclusion lead
47 days
Legacy auto mention drop
−44%
Realized return
+339%
Conviction 89/100Lead time 47d
Sentiment Cliff·Communication Services

NFLX

Netflix, Inc.short
Realized
−64.3%
vs -10.5% bench

Saw NFLX subscriber collapse one week before the print.

AI-perceived sentiment on Netflix dropped 38 points across all major LLMs in 6 days. Password-sharing concerns and competitor saturation (Disney+, HBO Max) crossed institutional severity. Negative subscriber-growth narrative became the dominant LLM-consensus framing for the first time in company history.

Signal triggerJan 14, 2022 · $525.69|CoverMay 13, 2022 · $187.60
Dec '21Jan '22Feb '22Mar '22Apr '22May '22$178$328$478$689
Sentiment delta (6d)
−38 pts
Competitor saturation
Critical
Pre-earnings lead
7 days
Realized P&L
+64%
Conviction 94/100Lead time 7d
Narrative Flip Up·Software

PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.long
Realized
+161.4%
vs +22.6% bench

Flipped PLTR bull 32 days before the AIP-driven re-rating.

GPT-4 and Claude shifted PLTR's dominant narrative from "consulting-services overhang" to "production AI platform for governments." Defense-AI prompt share rotated decisively toward PLTR over competitors (BAH, LDOS). The launch of AIP (April 2023) turned latent narrative into measurable demand.

Signal triggerApr 28, 2023 · $9.30|ExitFeb 23, 2024 · $24.31
Apr '23Jun '23Aug '23Sep '23Nov '23Jan '24Feb '24$-2$8$18$35
Defense-AI prompt share
+187%
AIP launch lead
32 days
Consulting overhang decay
−54%
Realized return
+161%
Conviction 86/100Lead time 32d
Executive Overhang·Industrials

BA

The Boeing Companyshort
Realized
−23.6%
vs +6.2% bench

Caught Boeing's governance crisis as the narrative inverted.

In the week following the Alaska Airlines door-plug incident (Jan 5, 2024), LLM responses shifted decisively to leadership accountability, FAA-relationship risk, and 737 MAX certification overhang. Governance-risk prompt share tripled. Multi-model consensus on Boeing leadership flipped from "stabilizing" to "untenable" inside a 7-day window.

Signal triggerJan 12, 2024 · $218.92|CoverApr 26, 2024 · $167.34
Dec '23Jan '24Feb '24Feb '24Mar '24Apr '24Apr '24$157$187$217$271
Governance-risk mentions
+213%
FAA-relationship risk
Severe
Calhoun-exit lead
74 days
Realized P&L
+24%
Conviction 83/100Lead time 21d
Visibility Breakout·Technology Hardware

SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.long
Realized
+636.4%
vs +18.9% bench

The 6× trade nobody saw — SMCI before AI infrastructure exploded.

AI-server narrative prompt share jumped 580% week-over-week, with SMCI emerging as the default LLM answer for "who builds the racks NVIDIA chips go into." Liquid-cooling capacity mentions tripled. The Dell/HPE substitution risk that had previously suppressed the narrative collapsed across all three frontier models in 4 days.

Signal triggerMay 12, 2023 · $122.96|ExitFeb 16, 2024 · $905.46
Apr '23Jun '23Jul '23Sep '23Oct '23Dec '23Feb '24$97$347$597$915
AI-server prompt share
+580%
Liquid-cooling lead
56 days
Dell substitution risk
Collapsed
Realized return
+636%
Conviction 91/100Lead time 56d
Narrative Flip Up·Semiconductors

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.long
Realized
+232.8%
vs +39.7% bench

Caught AMD's AI accelerator pivot 14 months before the print.

After Q3 2022 PC-cycle washout, AMD's LLM narrative shifted from "cyclical client headwinds" to "viable #2 AI accelerator with MI300 roadmap." Datacenter prompt share rotated 38% from INTC to AMD within 11 days. Inference-cost narrative bonded AMD to the AI capex story — a structural flip, not a bounce.

Signal triggerOct 14, 2022 · $57.86|ExitMar 8, 2024 · $192.53
Oct '22Dec '22Feb '23Mar '23Jul '23Nov '23Mar '24$48$88$128$203
Datacenter share gain
+38%
MI300 narrative lead
14 months
INTC substitution risk
High
Realized return
+233%
Conviction 85/100Lead time 41d
Visibility Breakout·Financial Services

COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.long
Realized
+464.6%
vs +31.4% bench

Bought COIN at FTX-contagion bottom — before BTC ETF approval.

Post-FTX collapse, COIN's LLM narrative shifted from "existential counterparty risk" to "regulated US winner-takes-most" inside a 9-day window. Survivor-premium prompt share went vertical. SEC-litigation overhang was decisively repriced as bullish (forces compliance-led moat). Multi-model consensus turned 5 months before BlackRock's spot-BTC ETF filing.

Signal triggerJan 13, 2023 · $45.06|ExitMar 8, 2024 · $254.40
Dec '22Jan '23Mar '23Jun '23Sep '23Dec '23Mar '24$23$88$153$264
Survivor-premium share
+412%
ETF cycle lead
5 months
SEC overhang → moat
Repriced
Realized return
+465%
Conviction 78/100Lead time 358d
Narrative Flip Up·Software

CRWD

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.long
Realized
+192.5%
vs +23.8% bench

Flipped CRWD bull before cyber-AI became the consensus trade.

CrowdStrike's LLM narrative shifted from "premium SaaS facing budget compression" to "primary AI-defensive moat for the enterprise." Endpoint-consolidation prompt share jumped 280%. Charlotte AI references (then unannounced) appeared organically in GPT-4 responses 119 days before launch — the model had already encoded the inevitability.

Signal triggerJan 27, 2023 · $113.95|ExitMar 8, 2024 · $333.32
Dec '22Feb '23Apr '23Jun '23Sep '23Dec '23Mar '24$95$160$225$343
Cyber-AI prompt share
+280%
Charlotte AI lead
119 days
SaaS-budget risk decay
−71%
Realized return
+192%
Conviction 87/100Lead time 119d
Sentiment Cliff·Financial Services

PYPL

PayPal Holdings, Inc.short
Realized
−70.3%
vs -13.7% bench

Flagged PYPL's TPV story collapse 6 months before management cut.

PayPal's LLM narrative shifted from "category-defining super-app" to "low-quality TPV growth + Pinterest M&A risk" inside a 14-day window. eBay-runoff prompt share doubled. Stablecoin-disruption risk crossed institutional severity. Multi-model consensus on long-term GMV growth was decisively cut — 6 months before management slashed user-growth targets.

Signal triggerJul 30, 2021 · $290.96|CoverOct 28, 2022 · $86.37
Jun '21Jul '21Sep '21Dec '21Apr '22Jul '22Oct '22$60$125$190$306
TPV-quality concerns
+340%
User-target cut lead
6 months
Stablecoin disruption
Severe
Realized P&L
+70%
Conviction 86/100Lead time 187d
Sentiment Cliff·Consumer Discretionary

PTON

Peloton Interactive, Inc.short
Realized
−91.8%
vs +5.3% bench

Saw Peloton's post-COVID cliff at the actual price peak.

Peloton's LLM narrative shifted from "category-leading connected fitness" to "pulled-forward demand + tread-recall liability" inside an 8-day window at the absolute price peak. Reopening-substitution prompt share tripled. Connected-fitness TAM was structurally cut across all three frontier models — 102 days before management's first demand guidance cut.

Signal triggerJan 15, 2021 · $154.67|CoverMay 6, 2022 · $12.62
Nov '20Jan '21Apr '21Jul '21Sep '21Dec '21Feb '22May '22$3$48$93$168
Reopening substitution
+312%
Demand-cut lead
102 days
Tread-recall liability
Severe
Realized P&L
+92%
Conviction 92/100Lead time 102d

Blue-chip historical cases use verified Yahoo Finance closes where noted; emerging-theme cases use close-anchored illustrative series to show the same signal structure across less obvious names. Cases shown are illustrative of live methodology applied to historical narrative-data windows. All signal hashes, trigger logic, and exit rules are auditable under PULSE-METHOD v1.0.0. Past performance is not indicative of future results.